5 reasons to believe the Chiefs will three-peat

At 15-1, the Kansas City Chiefs have the NFL’s best record. But many league observers remain unconvinced the team has a real shot at winning its third consecutive league championship.

Here are five reasons they might be wrong.

1. The Chiefs are outstanding in one-score games

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Much has been made about Kansas City setting a new NFL record by winning “14 consecutive one-score games.” This has been widely misinterpreted to mean the Chiefs had played 14 straight one-score games.

In truth, this happened over 18 games — starting with the Chiefs’ 25-17 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 17 of last season. Games that weren’t settled by one score are just ignored.

Since setting a new record of 14, the team has had four more matchups — winning all of them. Two were decided by single scores. So, 73% of the games in this 22-game stretch have been decided by eight or fewer points.

And yes… that’s a lot. Over the last 10 seasons, 53% of NFL games have been decided that narrowly, so it would be easy to think that the Chiefs are some kind of crazy outlier.

But they’re not.

Here are the 10 NFL teams with the highest percentage of one-score games during that same period — beginning with Week 17 of last season and including the postseason.

While Kansas City has more than any other team — and the highest percentage — it’s not exactly an outlier. Two other teams are at 70%. Three others are above 60%.

But the Chiefs are a bit of an outlier in a more important statistic: the number of victories in these close games. Over this same period, here are the teams with the best winning percentages in one-score games.

If the season ended today, all but one of these teams would be in the playoffs. So it’s unclear why winning one-score games is bad. It sure looks like winning close games is part of the NFL’s formula for success.

But it’s not as if Kansas City has just now figured out how to do it. Since Patrick Mahomes took over the offense in 2018, the Chiefs’ record in one-score games is 47-20. That 0.701 record tops the league during that time. And it’s not just about about Patrick Mahomes, either. During the 10 consecutive seasons Kansas City has been in the playoffs, it has a record of 0.667 in one-score games — second only to the Pittsburgh Steelers at 0.670.

2. The Chiefs’ success isn’t built on luck

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Only a fool would deny that luck has played a role in an NFL team’s 15-1 record. As the noted philosopher Joe Montana often told his followers, “The ball is shaped weird. Sometimes it bounces funny.” But it’s flat-out wrong to suggest that Kansas City’s record has all been built on lucky bounces.

Sure… Matthew Wright’s 31-yard field goal attempt that bounced off the left upright and over the crossbar to defeat the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 14 was lucky. But no luck was involved in Kansas City blocking the Denver Broncos’ last-second field goal attempt in Week 10. That was an excellent special teams play the Chiefs had planned after finding a weakness in the Broncos’ field goal attempts.

Of course… it was lucky for Kansas City that the Las Vegas Raiders chose a third-and-3 play with 14 seconds left in their Week 13 matchup for the center and quarterback to get their wires crossed and put a shotgun snap on the ground. But there was nothing lucky about Chiefs’ linebacker Nick Bolton breaking into the backfield to recover the loose ball.

These arguments only focus on the team’s good luck. The Chiefs have had plenty of bad luck, too. Losing wide receiver Hollywood Brown — their top free agent acquisition — on the first offensive snap of the preseason certainly counts as bad luck. So does losing Rashee Rice to a “friendly fire” injury in Week 4, Jaylen Watson in Week 6 and newly-signed left tackle D.J. Humphries in his first game with the team.

So yes… the Chiefs have benefited from some good luck. But they have had to fight off their share of bad luck, too. That’s what all NFL teams do. Championship teams just do it better.

3. Key players have returned

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Speaking of Brown, there’s no doubt the team will be better now that he has returned to the field. The same is true of running back Isiah Pacheco.

But in the five games defensive end Charles Omenihu has played since his return, the team’s sacks have almost doubled, going from 1.9 per game to 3.6 — while the number of blitzes per game has declined 30% from 13.3 to 9.2. At the same time, total quarterback pressures have remained relatively steady, dropping from 10.5 per game to 9.6.

Like Chris Jones, Omenihu is a player who can be effective both inside and outside. When he is in the lineup, it’s easier for defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to keep defenses guessing. This allows him to bring quarterback pressure more often — and give it a better chance to get home — when he sends just four pass rushers.

This also benefits the pass defense. During this five-game span, opponent passer ratings have dropped from 91.8 to 75.1, and points allowed have dropped from 19.8 to 14.0 per game.

4. Key players have arrived

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The injuries to Rice and Pacheco opened the door for two players we never imagined would play for the Chiefs this season: wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins and running back Kareem Hunt.

During multiple offseasons, Hopkins had been reported to be a player Kansas City had sought in free agency. Things had never worked out. But after Rice’s injury, general manager Brett Veach acquired him through a trade with the Tennesee Titans — and figured out a way to pay him the balance of his 2024 salary.

While he’s averaged just 4.1 receptions (and 43.1 yards) each game, Hopkins’ contributions have been significant. His presence has helped the team get more production from tight end Travis Kelce (who averaged 40.8 yards a game before Hopkins arrived, but 57.8 since then) while also making big plays of his own.

Then there’s Hunt, who got up from his couch to return to the team — and immediately became the starting running back. The 29-year-old veteran may be a step or two slower than he was when the team released him in 2018, but he is still a fierce competitor who can be trusted to get difficult yards. He played so well that when Pacheco returned, Hunt continued to have an important role in the offense.

5. The Chiefs have already made history

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Before NFL free agency began, it was fairly common for teams to win back-to-back Super Bowls. Five teams did so during the game’s first 28 years.

But after free agency started, it’s been an entirely different story. After the Denver Broncos did it, they went 6-10 in 1999. The New England Patriots did a little better in 2005, finishing the season 10-6 and winning against a Wild Card team in the first round — but then lost to the Broncos in the Divisional round.

So in their attempt at a three-peat, the Chiefs have already had more success than any other team in the free agency era.

Does that mean Kansas City will waltz right through the playoffs and win Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans? No. The Super Bowl champion is the team that can win three (or four) consecutive games against the NFL’s best teams. That’s very hard to do — which is exactly why it took almost two decades for another team to have a chance at a three-peat.

But make no mistake: the Chiefs are legitimate contenders who are as well-positioned as any other team to win the 2024 championship. If they fail, there will be no shame in it. If they succeed, their glory will be richly earned.