The Packers’ Punting is Pretty Good!

Punting stinks. Teams are doing it less now than basically ever before as they’ve leaned more often into going for it on fourth down, but sometimes, well sometimes you do just have to do the turnover with extra steps. And while it may seem not particularly significant who or how that job gets done, Packers fans know that it is an important operation. For years, the Packers struggled with punting units that graded out by DVOA, EPA, or even just your own lyin’ eyes as below-average. Thanks to a tall drink of water from across the north Atlantic, that isn’t the case anymore.

At first glance, Whelan’s stats wouldn’t jump out at you. At least if you were the type of sicko to actually look of punting stats. Whelan ranks 21st in yards-per-punt, 16th in net yards per punt, 14th in touchback rate, and 14th in the rate of punts placed inside the opponent’s 20 yard line. The only place he shines in his longest punt of the year, a booming 74-yarder against the Vikings that the Packers ultimately recovered, ranks sixth in the league.

Punting is extremely contextual, though. If you’re punting in the middle of the field, that is going to put a cap on the type of distance you can get on your punts. On the other hand, if you’re punting a lot near your own endzone, it is going to be difficult to get the ball inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. If we look at the advanced numbers, which take the context of these situations into account, we can see that Whelan really has been a significant upgrade for the Packers this season.

Whelan ranks ninth in EPA-per-punt-over-expectation. Yes, there are even advanced analytics for punters. Most of Whelan’s value comes from booming punts from his own territory, as he ranks fourth in the NFL in Puntalytics’ Open-Field SHARP RERUN, which attempts to measure punter-specific contributions to punting outcomes. Whelan has been much more pedestrian trying to pin teams in when punting near mid-field, ranking as the ninth-worst punter in that regard. But the field-flipping has been a major value-add for the team.

DVOA also agrees that the Packers’ punting unit as a whole has been a major value-add this year, ranking the unit fifth in the NFL in punting DVOA, and almost the only thing keeping the Packers league average in special teams DVOA after a horrendous start to the season from the field goal unit (the rest of the units are all pretty close to average).

We’re entering the season where it gets the most difficult for the kicking specialists. As the weather stays below freezing and the ball hardens and slickens, punting gets increasingly difficult. Thankfully, Whelan has leg to spare, and can hopefully avoid the prototypical special teams debacles of years past.