AFC West Battle: Final Predictions for Chiefs vs. Chargers in Week 14

The Kansas City Chiefs (11-1) and the Los Angeles Chargers (8-4) are set to meet on “Sunday Night Football” during Week 14 of the 2024 NFL season.

The AFC West has turned out to be one of the best divisions in football and perhaps the only division this season with three teams realistically vying for playoff spots. Kansas City has already clinched a playoff berth, but Los Angeles is on the cusp of punching their ticket.

The Chargers currently have a 93% probability of making the playoffs, but a win against the Chiefs would increase that to a 98% chance of making the playoffs. It’d also keep their AFC West hopes alive while temporarily preventing Kansas City from clinching a ninth consecutive AFC West title.

With so much on the line in this final 2024 regular season matchup between two AFC West powers, the A to Z Sports team has put together some scoring predictions for the game. Check it all out below:

Charles Goldman, Kansas City Chiefs writer

Chiefs 31, Chargers 21

Two things have me thinking the Chiefs are ready to turn a corner in Week 14. First, on the defensive side of the ball, the pass rush feels like it’s heating up with the return of Charles Omenihu. In Week 13 against the Las Vegas Raiders, the team saw their most sacks in a single game since Week 8. If that becomes a trend, we’ll also see improvements in the secondary for Kansas City. On the offensive side of the ball, we’re likely to see the debut of new LT D.J. Humphries, but I’m more intrigued by a development at wide receiver. DeAndre Hopkins was targeted beyond 20 yards multiple times in Week 13, one play resulted in a 34-yard gain. On two other occasions, Hopkins was able to draw defensive pass interference penalties. Patrick Mahomes is learning that he can trust Hopkins to make a play or force a penalty on any given down. That’s something the offense can continue to exploit against the Chargers’ secondary.

Nick Roesch, A to Z Sports Sports Betting

Chiefs 23, Chargers 20

I’ve got the Chiefs winning yet another nail-biter, but at least it’s over a good team this time. Chiefs offensive coordinator Matt Nagy mentioned this week that he’d like for there to be more balance between the run and pass, and I think that they can get accomplished in this game. Isiah Pacheco looked great in his return last week, and Kareem Hunt will benefit from a lighter workload. Hopefully that leads to things opening up down the field for Chiefs pass catchers. Defensively, Kansas City is in a good position, with the Chargers being without starting running back J.K. Dobbins. However, it will have to come up with a solution to contain emerging star wide receiver Ladd McConkey.

Justin Churchill, Las Vegas Raiders writer

Chiefs 21, Chargers 19

If you hadn’t watched a single football game this year and you just looked at the Chiefs record, you would think they were the best team in the NFL. The truth is, they have really been struggling on both sides of the ball. Now, they very well may be the best team in the league, because we all know this team comes alive in the later parts of the year. But the important thing is that they continue to find ways to win. They’re going to do that against the Chargers, and of course, it’s going to come down to a potential pick-six by the Chargers that is fumbled and returned for a touchdown by the Chiefs because all this team does is win in weird ways.

Chargers 20, Chiefs 17

If you’re looking for a slugfest, I think you’ll find it in this AFC West matchup in Week 14. Both of these teams play hard-nosed football, with a knack for clutch plays on the defensive side. Kansas City continues to find wonky ways to win football games, but that’s the NFL with Patrick Mahomes involved. Meanwhile, the Chargers haven’t made it look pretty at times, but they’ve come out victorious in four of their last five. I’m taking Jim Harbaugh’s team this weekend in a knockdown, drag-out sort of game that has a playoff feel. Both running games have a tough time getting going, and the quarterbacks ultimately have to make some unreal plays to procure offensive success. Cameron Dicker ices it late in the fourth quarter on a game-sealing field goal. Los Angeles must avoid allowing a final drive with too much time left on the clock for the Chiefs’ offense, though.

Wes Roesch, A to Z Sports Newsletters

Chargers 24, Chiefs 23

It will certainly help that the Chiefs will have D.J. Humphries at left tackle instead of Wanya Morris. However, I’m not sure that fixes the Chiefs’ red zone issues, at least not right away. On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs’ defense has been lit up against quite a few no-names over the past few weeks. Even with injuries on the Chargers’ offense, it wouldn’t be surprising to see quarterback Justin Herbert target some of K.C.’s weak defensive links in coverage, even if that means throwing to some of his lesser-known receiving options.

Combine all that with K.C. being on its third kicker, and I think all of these close games the Chiefs are playing will finally catch up to them. This isn’t the Carolina Panthers or Las Vegas Raiders — this is an actual good team that will make the playoffs. K.C. can’t get away with lucky breaks all the time.