Packers-Vikings: A Border Battle For the Ages

Is this the most anticipated matchup in the 129-game history of the Border Battle? Vikings fans may argue that nothing will ever top Brett Favre’s return to Lambeau adorned in purple and gold in 2009, but it’s hard to argue that the stakes have never been higher – at least from the Minnesota Vikings’ standpoint.

Win this game, and the dream of the No. 1 seed and home ice for the NFC playoffs is still within reach. Lose, and that dream is dead, and you’re one loss in Detroit away from the sixth seed and a likely playoff trip to LA against a team you’ve already lost to this season.

The highs aren’t as high for the Green Bay Packers, but the lows could be lower. A loss to the Purple puts the dreaded seven seed in play; they would need the Washington Commanders to drop one of their last two games to avoid a likely trip to Philadelphia on Wild Card weekend.

Never before have these teams met with each sitting on at least 11 wins, and both are coming in feeling very good about themselves — the Vikings off a comeback win at a place they never win, and the Pack having pitched the league’s first shutout this season.

If you look at it, the teams are remarkably similar. They’re both getting strong play out of their quarterbacks, the Vikings are more prolific through the air, the Pack more dominant on the ground. They’re both stout against the run and get after the quarterback. The Vikings give up 18.4 points per game, the Pack 19.1, both in the top six in the league.

I don’t think either defense holds their opponent under 24 points in this one. Green Bay’s defense is banged up and will be without starters Jaire Alexander, Quay Walker, and Evan Williams. Javon Bullard practiced this week after missing the past two games – they’ve listed him as questionable. That’s a lot of talent, particularly in the secondary, to be standing on the sideline against Minnesota’s talented pass catchers.

Of course, the best salve for an overmatched secondary is a strong pass rush, and the Pack’s has gotten better each week over the last month or so. The interior of the Purple’s offensive line is perennially vulnerable – Kenny Clark doesn’t sleep the night before he gets to play Garrett Bradbury, he’s so amped up.

Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison will get theirs. The key will be to slow the running game and not let Aaron Jones be as productive as he was in the first meeting. Green Bay’s run defense is a lot better now, eighth in the league. Putting Darnold in obvious passing situations will give Jeff Hafley a chance to dial up some pressure and exotic looks to try to force him into a mistake or two.

Josh Jacobs got only nine carries in Week 4 when the Vikings jumped out 28-0 before holding on for a two-point win. He’ll get at least double that this time around against a strong run defense that will likely get Ivan Pace, Jr. back after missing the last four games. Matt LaFleur will continue to be creative and innovative in the running game, using all three backs and a couple of receivers as ball carriers to try to keep Brian Flores’ bunch off balance.

Green Bay’s advantage comes in the deep-passing game, where they’re among the league’s best, while the Vikes rank 30th in giving up explosive plays. If Christian Watson can’t go, that takes away the Pack’s biggest downfield weapon. Look for Jayden Reed to get a chance to run some deep routes in his place. Remember that beautiful 53-yard connection against the Los Angeles Rams? Or the 44-yarder against the Detroit Lions? Reed can play that role when needed.

I’ll be interested to see if Luke Musgrave gets some run and we see some two tight end sets. The Packers haven’t shown much of that with Musgrave out the last few months, but his return could give Green Bay the chance to run some plays the Vikings haven’t seen.

Like almost all of these games, it will be close, back and forth, with turnovers likely deciding the outcome. The teams have split the last four years, and the road team won both games last season. Feels like we’re in for the same this time around.

The last four times these teams have met over the holiday season, the Packers have won. No current NFL coach has been better in December than Matt LaFleur, and while his young team will have to deal with a loud, mostly hostile environment, I say a late interception sets the table for Love to engineer a game-winning drive.