Packers vs Vikings: 5 Factors to Watch – Which QB Deals with Pressure Better?

Which quarterback handles pressure better?

Like almost every quarterback, Sam Darnold’s passing efficiency drops when he is put under pressure, but Minnesota’s QB has been excellent against the blitz this year. That means getting pressure on Darnold with only four rushers will be crucial on Sunday.

Green Bay’s defensive coordinator has given opposing quarterbacks plenty to think about pre-and-post snap in his first year with the team, but he has not relied on sending extra bodies to cause confusion. The Packers rank 30th in the NFL in blitz percentage.

He can continue to dial up simulated pressures and exotic looks, but with the weapons Minnesota has in Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson, and with the Packers missing key players on the back end, Hafley cannot afford to overcommit resources to the pass rush.

Fortunately, the Vikings offensive line, outside of strong right tackle Brian O’Neill, can be taken advantage of. If the Packers can disrupt Darnold’s rhythm with just four and play coverage on the back end, they stand a chance of holding Minnesota’s offense down.

On the flipside, Jordan Love’s stats under pressure, and more specifically, against the blitz, have improved significantly since he returned to full health. Since the bye, the second-year starter has been accurate on 72% of his passes for 523 yards, five touchdowns and no picks versus the blitz.

The Vikings blitz at the highest rate in the league, and rank 5th in the league for pressure percentage, so Love’s ability to make plays under duress will no doubt be fully tested this week. Whichever team’s QB stays coolest under pressure could go a long way to deciding this one.

The turnover battle

Two of the league’s best defenses in terms of taking the ball away will meet on Sunday afternoon. The hosts Minnesota rank first in the NFL in takeaways per game, while the visiting Packers rank third.

Love has not thrown an interception in the last five games, and his counterpart Sam Darnold has thrown just one in his last six contests. They have the same number of picks on the year, but Darnold’s turnover-worthy-play rate (3.6%) is slightly higher then Love’s (3%).

For his part, Darnold has averaged more than one turnover-worthy play in each of his last six games, indicating some good fortune has come his way during that stretch. If the Packers force him into big mistakes on Sunday, they have to capitalize.

Christian Watson’s availability

The news on Watson’s knee injury was positive on the whole this week, as the bruise will not keep him out long term, but the wide receiver’s status for Sunday is still up in the air, as he enters the game with a ‘questionable’ designation.

His availability – or lack thereof – will be huge news for the Packers either way, as his presence on the field dictates how the opposing defense has to operate, due to his ability to create explosive plays downfield.

If Watson cannot play, Brian Flores will be less concerned about the Packers beating his defense over the top, and will be able to lean fully into his aggressive tendencies as he calls plays. Watson is a true field-tilter for Green Bay.

Matt LaFleur’s plan of attack

The Packers have leaned much more heavily on the run game this year with Josh Jacobs, and his performances have warranted it, but at times LaFleur might have even trusted it too much, with returns starting to diminish as Jacobs workload gets larger.

This has partially been due to the run blocking Jacobs is operating behind not giving him much to work with.

Only two teams have allowed a lower yards per carry than Minnesota this season, but only two teams have allowed more passing yards per game. Offenses have been reluctant to run at the Vikings front, which often presents unusual looks or has multiple players mugging the line of scrimmage.

The numbers suggest relying on the passing attack to hurt Minnesota, but Green Bay has made the run game their offensive identity all season long. Will they stick with it? Or change the plan of attack for this week?

Can the Packers start fast?

In two of their three division losses, the Packers allowed the first 28 points of the game to the Vikings, and the first 10 to the Lions. In the other, they scored the first three points of the game before then allowing the next 24 points.

They might have been good enough to win those games, but essentially gave themselves no shot due to the hole they dug for themselves in the first half, in particular, shooting themselves in the foot on offense far too often to sustain drives.

Minnesota will arrive ready to play, still controlling their own destiny in the race for the number one seed. In a hostile environment on the road in a noisy U.S. Bank stadium, Green Bay cannot afford to make the same slow start which has plagued them in other division matchups.