Dontayvion Wicks: The X-Factor for a Packers Victory Over Eagles in Wild Card Weekend

The Green Bay Packers have made the playoffs as the No. 7 seed in the NFC, leaving them with the unfortunate fate of drawing the toughest matchup in the conference on Wild Card Weekend. They’ll travel to Philly to take on the 2-seed Eagles, and Green Bay stacks up as a clear underdog.

It’s hard to argue too much with the Eagles being considered favorites in the game, but there are plenty of Packers who could be difference-makers in sparking an upset. Some are obvious: a huge game from Josh Jacobs or Jordan Love could put Green Bay over the top.

But one player that everyone seems to be sleeping on is second-year wide receiver Dontayvion Wicks. He may have only posted 415 receiving yards in the regular season (ranking No. 5 on the Packers), but Christian Watson’s absence could make Wicks the most valuable receiver on the field for Green Bay. That’s doubly true when you consider how the Green Bay offense matches up with the Philadelphia secondary.

FanDuel Sportsbook’s Packers-Eagles prop bets have Wicks’ line for receiving yards set at over/under 39.5. This is the fifth-highest mark among players in the game, including the third-highest on the Packers. He significantly trails both Romeo Doubs (47.5) and Jayden Reed (46.5). This is seriously underrating Wicks’ potential to be the x-factor in Green Bay’s passing attack this week, and there are a lot of reasons to believe he’s in for a big game.

Packers-Eagles Prediction: Dontayvion Wicks Is in for a Big Game

The two key pieces for Wicks this week are Watson’s absence and the way this elite Eagles secondary lines up. So let’s look at one at a time.

Watson’s Absence

Christian Watson is officially done for the season, and even though his impact has been inconsistent this year, missing him has clear implications on the offense. When not injured, he was often on the field for the vast majority of the Packers’ offensive snaps (he played 94% in Week 13 and 92% in Week 14, for example). So his absence first and foremost means Green Bay needs to get other players on the field.

Consider, then, Wicks’ playing time over the last three games (all of which had Watson either inactive or limited by injuries):

• Week 16 (vs. NO): 42 snaps, 61% share
• Week 17 (@ MIN): 46 snaps, 73% share
• Week 18 (vs. CHI): 48 snaps, 74% share

These marks are consistent with what we saw when Watson left early and was inactive earlier in the year too:

• Week 4 (vs. MIN): 58 snaps, 76% share
• Week 5 (@ LAR): 45 snaps, 76% share

If we exclude those five games, Wicks only even topped a 60% snap share (meaning played 60% of the team’s offensive snaps or more) in two of 12 contests, falling below 50% eight times. His playing time in a healthy offense is inconsistent at best, but Wicks can be expected to get a ton of run with Watson out. And that also ends up reflected in his receiving volume. Let’s compare his per-game numbers in those five games highlighted above with the rest of his contests:

So even if we just go off some really simple back-of-the-napkin math, Wicks’ average lands slightly ahead of that 39.5-yard betting line. And that’s before we get into how this specific matchup impacts things:

Eagles Alignment

The two Eagles corners you want to avoid most in coverage are rookies Quinyon Johnson and Cooper DeJean. PFF actually has DeJean as their third-highest graded corner on the season, with Mitchell coming in at 21st (among 116 qualifying).

DeJean is credited with allowing just an 82.2 passer rating when targeted in coverage, and Mitchell is almost as good at 87.0. For context, those ratings would rank just 30th and 25th among qualifying quarterbacks this season. The NFL league average is 92.3.

But their roles are also specialized. Neither are lockdown corners who shadow wide receivers. Mitchell almost exclusively plays in the right cornerback slot, and DeJean plays almost exclusively in the slot. Darius Slay typically covers the left side. He’s no slouch either, but he’s graded out in coverage (68.9 per PFF) well below both Mitchell (74.0) and DeJean (79.3) this season.

And why is this important for Wicks? The alignment of the Packer’s top wide receiver trio for this game should largely keep him away from Mitchell and DeJean.

Romeo Doubs rarely lines up in the slot and plays more often on the left than the right side of the offense. That means he’ll draw Mitchell most often. Jayden Reed primarily lines up in the slot. He’ll draw DeJean (who will also probably spend plenty of time covering Tucker Kraft). Wicks lines up more often on the right side of the offense, aligning him with Slay.

It’s not going to be as simple as those 1-to-1 matchups all game, but as a general trend, we can see Wicks getting the easiest matchup of the three.

So here we’ve got someone who always sees a significantly expanded role when Watson isn’t on the field, and we’ve got him in a more favorable coverage matchup than the Packers’ other wideouts.

Whether you’re a bettor targeting that 39.5yard over/under or just a Packers fan trying to figure out the team’s edges for Sunday, Dontayvion Wicks is a player you should be watching very carefully this week.