Jacobs’ Breakout Performance Solves Packers’ Red Zone Blues vs. 49ers

Josh Jacobs tied a career high with 3 rushing touchdowns against the 49ers; it was the most rushing touchdowns for a Packers player in a regular season game since 2019.

Over the course of an NFL season, there are several statistics that likely determine who wins and loses games on a week-to-week basis. The most obvious is who wins the turnover battle. The next might be which team has less penalties than the other.

However, the most important could be winning the Red Zone battle. Going into the Week 11 game at the Chicago Bears, the Green Bay Packers were almost at the bottom of the league in Red Zone efficiency. They ranked 29th in the league going into that game. They had scored touchdowns on 47% of their drives inside the 20. Negative plays usually have been the biggest factor in the Packers getting seven points or three or none.

After the last two games, the Packers are up to 20th in the rankings, scoring touchdowns on 54.55% of their drives. Against the Bears, the Packers were 3 of 5 inside the 20, however the two non-TD drives ended up with no points. It was as big a reason the game came down to the final play as any.

On Sunday in the 38-10 win over the 49ers, the Packers were at a season-best 5 of 5 inside the 20. The biggest reason was getting the ball two its biggest red-zone threats. Josh Jacobs had three 1-yard rushing touchdowns and Tucker Kraft had a nifty catch-and-run touchdown on a screen pass.

Red Zone touchdowns for the Packers after Week 12: 7 – Josh Jacobs; 5 – Tucker Kraft; 3 – Dontayvion WIcks; 3 – Jayden Reed; 2 – Romeo Doubs; 1 – Christian Watson; 1 – Malik Willis; 1 – Emanuel Wilson; 1 – Jordan Love; 1 – Malik Heath

How important is the Red Zone in its indicator of who wins and loses? Look no further than the 2003 and 2020 versions of the Packers.

In 2003, the Packers had its best rushing season since the Lombardi Era Packers. Ahman Green rushed for over 1,800 yards and had 20 total touchdowns in the regular season. They finished second in the league in Red Zone percentage at 65% (behind the Chiefs at 77%). In their first playoff game, Green had two 4th-quarter touchdown runs from inside the 5 yard line.

However, against the Eagles in the infamous “4th & 26” game, it was the lack of touchdowns inside the red zone which swung the game. Green was stopped on a 4th & goal from the 1-yard line at the end of the second quarter. And then in the 4th quarter, the Packers had a dreadful set of plays from inside the 5, which included a 3rd down shovel pass to Tony Fisher. The Packers scored just 3 points on those two drives.

Fast-forward to 2020, where the Packers led the league in scoring and had the best Red Zone offense from the last 20 years. The Packers scored touchdowns on 80% of its red-zone trips during the 2020 regular season, the highest of any team since 2003.

But in the NFC Championship, in a 5-point loss, the Packers left at least 6 points on the board by going just two of four inside the 20-yard line. Davante Adams dropped a touchdown pass on one of the drives and couldn’t catch several others on the team’s final drive in the 4th quarter of the 31-26 loss.

Did Matt LaFleur finally figure out the best way to score for the team is by getting the ball to Josh Jacobs? On short-yardage downs and goal-to-go situations, the best bet for 7 points is riding #8. Of his seven red-zone touchdowns, four are in the last two games. For this season to have success well into January, riding #8 could be the way.