If you think it’s all about Travis Kelce, think again! This X-factor will change the game

The Kansas City Chiefs are heading to the AFC Championship game for the seventh straight year, this time against the Buffalo Bills. Sunday’s game will be the sixth time since 2019 that Arrowhead Stadium will host this clash for the right to play in the Super Bowl. Led by head coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City is looking to become the first franchise in NFL history to win three consecutive championships.

In addition to the Chiefs’ quest for history, this clash with the AFC titans has many narratives. The Bills have seen their postseason dreams crushed by Kansas City in three out of the last four years. That trend is demoralizing for a franchise that has never hoisted the Lombardi trophy.

Quarterback Josh Allen has completely revitalized a Bills team that recently carried the longest postseason drought in pro-American sports. The Bills’ superstar has gotten the best of his biggest foe several times in the regular season, including defeating the Chiefs 30-21 win on November 17. But the AFC East winners have never beaten Patrick Mahomes and company when it’s mattered most.

Kansas City is coming off a tight home win over the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round. The legendary duo of Mahomes and tight end Travis Kelce were dynamic against Houston and will need to maintain their form on Sunday night. However, those two are not the X-factor heading into the AFC Championship. That title goes to a player and overall positional group that has been key in the Chiefs’ past postseason wins over the Bills.

Kareem Hunt is the X-factor for the AFC Championship

Kansas City Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt (29) prepares for contact by Buffalo Bills safety Damar Hamlin (3) in the first quarter at Highmark Stadium. Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

After a few years as a backup with the Cleveland Browns, Hunt, the ex-Chiefs RB returned to the franchise. Following Isiah Pacheco’s leg injury, the Chiefs brought in the tailback they drafted back in 2017.

Hunt has been a pleasant surprise for Kansas City, posting his highest rushing total since 2020. The 29-year-old has picked up 728 yards and seven touchdowns on the ground while also catching 23 passes for 176 yards.

Hunt has been a difference in a few games against playoff-caliber opponents this season. The former Pro Bowl selection rushed for a clutch 106 yards in Kansas City’s overtime win over the Buccaneers on November 4. The week after, Hunt was a force in the passing game with 65 receiving yards against an elite Denver Broncos defense.

Against the Bills earlier this year, the veteran gained 60 yards on 14 carries. While that total is not bad, the team could only muster 78 yards on the ground against Buffalo. Hunt is critical in this matchup and his productivity is part of a very important key to this game. This key AFC Championship has helped propel Kansas City in its past postseason matchups against Buffalo.

Kansas City’s rushing offense has been elite in past wins against the Bills

Kansas City Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt (29) prepares for contact by Buffalo Bills safety Damar Hamlin (3) in the first quarter at Highmark Stadium.
Mark Konezny-Imagn Images
Simply put, the Chiefs need to be able to run the ball against Buffalo. In last year’s AFC Divisional win over the Bills, Andy Reid’s offense put up 146 yards on the ground, led by Pachecho with 95. Pachecho will also play a critical role in this matchup. The third-year back is way more explosive than Kareem Hunt. Therefore, the contrast of these two can throw the Bills’ defense into disarray.

Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott’s defense has had an uneven year. The Bills gave up 21.6 points per game in 2024, ranking eleventh in the NFL overall. This unit, however, is plagued by a faulty secondary, which is towards the bottom of the league in passing yards allowed.

With Travis Kelce in such good form, Buffalo will be locked on containing the legendary tight end. Therefore, the Bills’ linebackers who will constantly be in pass coverage, like Terrel Bernard, will be essential in this matchup. However, Buffalo’s secondary can fold if players like Bernard are constantly focused on containing Kareem Hunt and company.

Hunt is more important than Pacheco because he is the more physically imposing presence of the two. This means that he can most likely wear down Buffalo’s linebackers so that they are less prone to cover Kelce and the Chiefs’ receiving core. Pacheco has also taken on a lesser role out of the two in the offense this season, even when he returned in late November. But the Chiefs have run for over 100 yards against the Bills in all their postseason clashes in this era. That trend will have to continue on Sunday.

What’s at stake in Sunday night’s game

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) celebrates with the Vince Lombardi Trophy after defeating the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII at Allegiant Stadium.
Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

The stakes couldn’t be higher for both franchises. Kansas City makes its fifth Super Bowl in six years with a victory while Buffalo can qualify for the sport’s biggest game for the first time since 1994. The Bills are trying to overcome a major mental hurdle in this clash against a team that has constantly been in their way. This is the best version of Josh Allen so far in his career, and he has a very competent running back in James Cook beside him.

The game might be at Arrowhead. The Chiefs might be slightly favored going into the matchup. And even if Buffalo loses, the franchise will likely be back in this position shortly. But still, it’s starting to feel like now or never for Sean McDermott and Josh Allen heading into Sunday.

In addition, Travis Kelce has hinted that this could be his final game at Arrowhead Stadium. Sending one of football’s greatest players on a high note would be a fitting end to his storied career. Overall, Kareem Hunt and the running game could go a long way toward helping the Chiefs achieve that goal and make history as the first team to three-peat.